May 28, 2024

If you squint, there is a silver lining in the otherwise dreadful New York Times/Siena poll that dropped on Monday.

Yes, that poll has Donald Trump leading in five of the six swing states that will decide the 2024 election—two by double digits, and another two by seven points each. It also found that President Biden is seriously underperforming with young people and people of color, key voting blocs that he will need to win in November; that a sizable majority have deep reservations about Biden’s ability to lead the economy; and that many voters have forgotten, or no longer object to, some of the most disastrous aspects of Trump’s presidency. With crank independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, Biden’s support dips as low as 30 percent. 

The poll is rightly causing panic among Democrats, but it also shows that the election is not a lost cause for the party. While the numbers for Biden specifically are terrible, other Democrats are performing quite well. In Nevada, where Biden is trailing Trump by 12 points, Democratic Senate nominee Jackie Rosen is narrowly leading her Republican opponent. In Pennsylvania, where Biden trails Trump by three points, Democrat Bob Casey has a five-point lead. In Arizona, Biden lags Trump by seven points, while Democrat Ruben Gallego leads by five.